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Draft Lottery Simulator

2027 to 2029 drafts

Simulate the NBA's 3-2-1 draft lottery format used for the 2027 through 2029 drafts, where 16 teams draw from 37 balls and every lottery slot is drawn.

NBA 3-2-1 Draft Lottery Simulator

Live standings updated ET

Ball groups depend on Play-In results that are not known until April, so this board projects them from current conference seeding. Some procedural details of the new format, including how repeat restrictions are applied mid-draw, have not been published by the NBA. Simulate the current format instead.

PickTeam
  1. 1Atlanta HawksSeed 1
  2. 2Boston CelticsSeed 2
  3. 3Brooklyn NetsSeed 3
  4. 4Charlotte HornetsSeed 4
  5. 5Chicago BullsSeed 5
  6. 6Dallas MavericksSeed 6
  7. 7Denver NuggetsSeed 7
  8. 8Golden State WarriorsSeed 8
  9. 9Houston RocketsSeed 9
  10. 10LA ClippersSeed 10
  11. 11Cleveland CavaliersSeed 11
  12. 12Detroit PistonsSeed 12
  13. 13Los Angeles LakersSeed 13
  14. 14Memphis GrizzliesSeed 14
  15. 15Indiana PacersSeed 15
  16. 16Minnesota TimberwolvesSeed 16

Full odds distribution

Simulate 10,000 lotteries to see each seed's chance at every pick, including the effect of caps and floors.

Run the distribution to see how often each seed lands on each pick.

Projected 2026-27 ball allocation

Group A gets three balls, groups B and C two, and group D one.

Projected NBA 3-2-1 lottery ball allocation and first-pick odds.
SeedTeamGroupBallsDraw odds
1Atlanta HawksB25.41%
2Boston CelticsB25.41%
3Brooklyn NetsB25.41%
4Charlotte HornetsA38.11%
5Chicago BullsA38.11%
6Dallas MavericksA38.11%
7Denver NuggetsA38.11%
8Golden State WarriorsA38.11%
9Houston RocketsA38.11%
10LA ClippersA38.11%
11Cleveland CavaliersC25.41%
12Detroit PistonsC25.41%
13Los Angeles LakersC25.41%
14Memphis GrizzliesC25.41%
15Indiana PacersD12.70%
16Minnesota TimberwolvesD12.70%

How the 3-2-1 lottery works

  1. 1Sixteen teams enter, split into four ball groups. The seven non-Play-In teams outside the three worst records get three balls each, the three worst records get two, the four Play-In teams seeded 9th and 10th get two, and the two losers of the 7-vs-8 Play-In games get one.
  2. 2That makes 37 balls in total, so a three-ball team has an 8.1 percent chance at the first pick, a two-ball team 5.4 percent and a one-ball team 2.7 percent.
  3. 3Groups C and D are defined by Play-In role rather than final playoff status, so the two teams that win the 8 seed through the Play-In still hold lottery picks.
  4. 4All 16 picks are drawn. There is no reverse-record fill, which is the biggest departure from the current system.
  5. 5The three worst records are protected: they cannot fall past pick 12, so in the worst case they take picks 10, 11 and 12.
  6. 6A team's pick cannot be first overall in consecutive drafts, and cannot land in the top five in three consecutive drafts.