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Draft Lottery Simulator

How every draft lottery works

Four of the five leagues use a lottery, and no two of them work the same way. Here is what each one actually does, and how these simulations model it.

NBA lottery

Simulate the NBA Draft Lottery with the real 1,001-combination ball model, live standings and flattened top-three odds.

Simulate
  1. 1The 14 teams that miss the playoffs enter the lottery, seeded worst record first. Play-In losers that do not reach the playoffs are lottery teams.
  2. 2Fourteen ping-pong balls produce 1,001 four-number combinations. One combination is unassigned and triggers a redraw, leaving 1,000 spread across the field.
  3. 3The three worst records share the top odds at 140 combinations each, a 14.0 percent chance at the first pick.
  4. 4Only the first four picks are drawn. Picks 5 through 14 go to the remaining lottery teams in inverse record order, so the worst team can never fall past fifth and seed n can never fall past pick n+4.
  5. 5Teams with identical records split the combinations for their seeds as evenly as possible, with a random drawing settling any remainder.

NFL draft order

The NFL has no draft lottery. Track the live projected draft order built from inverse record with strength-of-schedule tiebreakers.

Simulate
  1. 1The NFL has no draft lottery. The order is set entirely by results.
  2. 2Picks 1 through 18 go to the 18 teams that miss the playoffs, in inverse order of regular-season record.
  3. 3Picks 19 through 32 go to playoff teams grouped by the round in which they were eliminated: Wild Card losers, Divisional losers, Conference Championship losers, then the Super Bowl loser and winner. Playoff seeding is irrelevant.
  4. 4Teams with identical records are separated by strength of schedule, the aggregate winning percentage of their opponents. The lower strength of schedule picks earlier.
  5. 5If teams remain tied, division and conference tiebreakers apply, and a coin toss settles anything left.

NHL lottery

Run the NHL Draft Lottery's two draws with the 10-spot movement cap that keeps the worst team from falling past third.

Simulate
  1. 1All 16 teams that miss the playoffs enter the lottery, seeded in inverse order of regular-season points.
  2. 2Fourteen balls generate 1,001 combinations, one of which is a designated redraw, so 1,000 combinations are spread across the field.
  3. 3There are two draws: one for the first overall pick and one for the second. The rest of the top 16 fills by inverse points order.
  4. 4A team can move up a maximum of 10 spots. Only seeds 1 through 11 can actually land the first pick, and if a team seeded 12th or worse wins the first draw it moves up exactly 10 while the first pick reverts to the worst team.
  5. 5That cap is why the worst team's real chance at the first pick is about 25.5 percent even though it holds only 18.5 percent of the combinations.
  6. 6A club may not win a lottery draw more than twice in any five-year span.

MLB lottery

Simulate the MLB Draft Lottery for the top six picks, including the repeat rule that removes clubs from the drawing entirely.

Simulate
  1. 1The lottery decides the first six picks only. All 18 clubs that miss the postseason are entered, minus those excluded by the repeat rule.
  2. 2Seeds are set by inverse winning percentage. Identical records are separated by the previous season's record rather than a coin flip, so every club holds a distinct number of balls.
  3. 3The three worst clubs each receive 165 of the 1,000 balls, and the allocation falls to 2 balls for the best non-playoff club.
  4. 4Revenue-sharing recipients cannot receive a lottery pick in three consecutive drafts, and every other club cannot receive one in two consecutive drafts.
  5. 5Excluded clubs are removed from the drawing entirely, so the remaining clubs' effective odds are their ball count divided by the eligible total. An excluded club also cannot pick earlier than 10th overall.
  6. 6Picks 7 through 18 go to the remaining non-playoff clubs by inverse record, adjusted for that floor.

WNBA lottery

Simulate the WNBA Draft Lottery's two draws, seeded by cumulative record across the two most recent seasons.

Simulate
  1. 1The teams that missed the most recent postseason enter the lottery, seeded by cumulative record across the two most recent regular seasons rather than a single year.
  2. 2Fourteen balls produce 1,001 combinations, one unassigned, leaving 1,000 across the field.
  3. 3There are two draws, for the first and second picks. The remaining lottery teams fill the next picks in inverse order of their two-year record.
  4. 4The WNBA does not publish a fixed seed-to-combination table. The league recalculates the allocation from two-year records and releases the exact counts each fall.
  5. 5Ties in cumulative record are broken by a random drawing conducted by the league.

How the simulations are built

Why the numbers here match the leagues' published odds.

  • Draws sample combinations rather than percentages. Drawing a combination that belongs to an already-selected team, or the one unassigned combination, is equivalent to resampling, so the simulation draws weighted and without replacement.
  • Caps and floors are applied after the draw, in the order each league specifies. That is why the NHL's worst team wins the first pick about 25.5 percent of the time despite holding 18.5 percent of the combinations.
  • Standings refresh automatically, so seeds and combination counts track the season without anyone editing a table by hand.
  • Where a league has not published the exact procedure, or where the inputs depend on results that have not happened yet, the page says so rather than presenting a guess as fact.